tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10531070.post5094395083673688459..comments2023-10-22T16:33:53.117-05:00Comments on composite drawlings: Dangerous rise of unrest in Chinaleucanthemum bhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08506838699802304944noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10531070.post-18259825244641488962007-03-13T10:44:00.000-05:002007-03-13T10:44:00.000-05:00My thanks for the link!The problem in China is end...My thanks for the link!<BR/><BR/>The problem in China is endemic due to the banking system being controlled by the regime, so that so much of the economy is now based on bad loans or "Non-Performing Loans" (NPL) that the entire structure has no stability. Compare Japan before the bubble burst there only having 10% of GDP depending upon NPL and the various Asian Tigers ranging between 12% - 15% for same. China at 30%-60% has a larger problem in scale and depth than any of its neighbors have. The entire system driven towards industrial expansion via the crony-empowered banking system now has endemic social problems as well as environmental and economic ones. The City of Beijing estimated that it lost $1.5 billion in economic activity due to pollution alone.<BR/><BR/>Add in price controls on gasoline leading to bi-directional smuggling, and such simple things as not even having a decent understanding of how to run a company (which, amusingly, many street gangs in the US at least the the idea, if not in great detail) and I think any State in the Union would shine in comparison to China. Average NPLs in the US are under 1% for businesses and in the 1.3-1.5% for individuals. The SBA runs at a much nastier rate of 10%, but that is what we expect from a Federal program: lack of proper management.<BR/><BR/>As a Nation we have other indicators that point to long term problems, but economic ones are not amongst them. Now if you want a *real* mess, take a look at <A HREF="http://ajacksonian.blogspot.com/2006/12/irans-oil-problem.html" REL="nofollow">Iran's oil problem</A> and <A HREF="http://ajacksonian.blogspot.com/2007/01/oil-outlook-cross-post-at-classical.html" REL="nofollow">my longer view of it</A> and similar problems... which is a good method of curing insomnia.A Jacksonianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07607888697879327120noreply@blogger.com